Platense FC 2–1 Isidro Metapán: Result & Stats

Platense FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Isidro Metapán

J. Delgado 58', 46'

Diego Gregori 1'

4/3/2022

Primera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 15Estadio Antonio Toledo Valle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Platense FC39%

×Draw29%

Isidro Metapán32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Platense FCExpected goals in this matchIsidro Metapán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.04

Platense FC

1.19

Isidro Metapán

1.04

Platense FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 147 away

1.12

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Platense FC

1.12

Isidro Metapán

1.07

allows per match

Platense FC

1.00

Isidro Metapán

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense FC+0.00on par

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense FC ↓

Isidro Metapán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Platense FC or draw

68%

Platense FC or Isidro Metapán

71%

Draw or Isidro Metapán

61%

Winning margin

Platense FC wins by 2+

17%

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Platense FC 1+ goals

70%

Platense FC 2+ goals

33%

Platense FC 3+ goals

12%

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

65%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

28%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Platense FC (draw refunded)

55%

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense FC at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Isidro Metapán away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense FC attack 1.12 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Isidro Metapán attack 1.07 + Platense FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Platense FC scores more

39%

level

29%

Isidro Metapán scores more

32%

Platense FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Diego Gregori

32'

B. López← B. Morales

46'

J. Delgado

50'

R. Padilla← W. Arizala

58'

J. Delgado

67'

B. Martínez← G. Baires

67'

I. Herrera← J. Delgado

67'

F. Clavel← J. Amaya

76'

M. Aranda← M. Alfaro

82'

Y. Gutiérrez← M. Molina

82'

I. Castro← F. Quintanilla

82'

B. Ortega← C. Aguilar

Platense

Isidro

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Delgado

Manager: G. Rivera

50'▲R. Padilla←▼W. Arizala

67'▲B. Martínez←▼G. Baires

67'▲I. Herrera←▼J. Delgado

76'▲M. Aranda←▼M. Alfaro

Platense FC substitutes

PadillaMartínezHerreraAranda

Manager: J. Figueroa

32'▲B. López←▼B. Morales

67'▲F. Clavel←▼J. Amaya

82'▲Y. Gutiérrez←▼M. Molina

82'▲I. Castro←▼F. Quintanilla

82'▲B. Ortega←▼C. Aguilar

Isidro Metapán substitutes

LópezClavelGutiérrezCastroOrtega

Match Recap: Platense FC vs Isidro Metapán

Platense FC beat Isidro Metapán 2-1 in Primera Division on April 3, 2022.

Goals: Diego Gregori (1'), J. Delgado (46', 58').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Toledo Valle in Zacatecoluca.

Platense FC vs Isidro Metapán — Primera Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Platense FC vs Isidro Metapán