Isidro Metapán 1–1 Platense FC: Result & Stats

Isidro Metapán

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Platense FC

Diego Gregori 29'

J. Peña 24'

1/30/2022

Primera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 4Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Isidro Metapán40%

×Draw28%

Platense FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isidro MetapánExpected goals in this matchPlatense FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Isidro Metapán

1.25

Platense FC

1.07

Isidro Metapán creates 17% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 27 away

1.29

creates per match

1.07

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Isidro Metapán

1.29

Platense FC

1.07

allows per match

Isidro Metapán

1.07

Platense FC

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isidro Metapán ↓

Platense FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Isidro Metapán or draw

68%

Isidro Metapán or Platense FC

72%

Draw or Platense FC

60%

Winning margin

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

18%

Platense FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

71%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

36%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

13%

Platense FC 1+ goals

66%

Platense FC 2+ goals

29%

Platense FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

56%

Platense FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isidro Metapán at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 147 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isidro Metapán attack 1.29 + Platense FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Platense FC attack 1.07 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Isidro Metapán scores more

40%

level

28%

Platense FC scores more

32%

Isidro Metapán at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Isidro Metapán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

9'

24'

29'

41'

A. Hernández← F. Escobar

46'

F. Clavel← C. Aguilar

46'

R. Orellana← M. Alfaro

56'

59'

59'

76'

81'

B. Morales← Y. Gutiérrez

Isidro

Platense

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: J. Figueroa

9'▲M. Molina←▼I. Castro

46'▲F. Clavel←▼C. Aguilar

81'▲B. Morales←▼Y. Gutiérrez

Isidro Metapán substitutes

MolinaClavelMorales

Manager: G. Rivera

41'▲A. Hernández←▼F. Escobar

46'▲R. Orellana←▼M. Alfaro

56'▲W. Novoa←▼G. Baires

76'▲R. Burgos←▼J. Peña

Platense FC substitutes

HernándezOrellanaNovoaBurgos

Match Recap: Isidro Metapán vs Platense FC

Isidro Metapán and Platense FC drew 1-1 in Primera Division on January 30, 2022.

Goals: J. Peña (24'), Diego Gregori (29').

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez in Metapán.

Isidro Metapán vs Platense FC — Primera Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Isidro Metapán vs Platense FC