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Platense FC vs Chalatenango — Primera Division 2019

Platense FC
Platense FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chalatenango
Chalatenango
2/6/2022Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 5Estadio Antonio Toledo Valle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Platense FC45%
×Draw26%
Chalatenango29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense FC
1.43
Chalatenango
1.09

Platense FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 74 away

creates per match

Platense FC
1.12
Chalatenango
1.18

allows per match

Platense FC
1.00
Chalatenango
1.74

finishing

Platense FC+0.00on par
Chalatenango+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense FC ↓

Chalatenango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Platense FC or draw
71%
Platense FC or Chalatenango
74%
Draw or Chalatenango
55%

Winning margin

Platense FC wins by 2+
22%
Chalatenango wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Platense FC 1+ goals
76%
Platense FC 2+ goals
42%
Platense FC 3+ goals
17%
Chalatenango 1+ goals
66%
Chalatenango 2+ goals
30%
Chalatenango 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Platense FC (draw refunded)
61%
Chalatenango (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense FC at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Chalatenango away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense FC attack 1.12 + Chalatenango defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.43

Chalatenango attack 1.18 + Platense FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Platense FC scores more
45%
level
26%
Chalatenango scores more
29%

Platense FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platense FC vs Chalatenango

Platense FC and Chalatenango drew 1-1 in Primera Division on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Toledo Valle in Zacatecoluca.