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Chalatenango vs Platense FC — Primera Division 2019

Chalatenango
Chalatenango
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Platense FC
Platense FC
12/10/2021Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Jose Gregorio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Chalatenango38%
×Draw28%
Platense FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chalatenango
1.20
Platense FC
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 27 away

creates per match

Chalatenango
1.18
Platense FC
1.07

allows per match

Chalatenango
1.19
Platense FC
1.22

finishing

Chalatenango+0.00on par
Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chalatenango ↓

Platense FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chalatenango or draw
66%
Chalatenango or Platense FC
72%
Draw or Platense FC
62%

Winning margin

Chalatenango wins by 2+
16%
Platense FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chalatenango 1+ goals
70%
Chalatenango 2+ goals
34%
Chalatenango 3+ goals
12%
Platense FC 1+ goals
68%
Platense FC 2+ goals
31%
Platense FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chalatenango (draw refunded)
52%
Platense FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chalatenango at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chalatenango attack 1.18 + Platense FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Platense FC attack 1.07 + Chalatenango defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chalatenango scores more
38%
level
28%
Platense FC scores more
34%

Chalatenango at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chalatenango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chalatenango vs Platense FC

Chalatenango and Platense FC drew 1-1 in Primera Division on December 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Jose Gregorio Martínez in Chalatenango.