Platense FC 1–1 Atlético Marte: Result & Stats

Platense FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Marte

1/26/2022

Primera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 3Estadio Antonio Toledo Valle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Platense FC47%

×Draw27%

Atlético Marte26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Platense FCExpected goals in this matchAtlético Marte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.96

Platense FC

1.38

Atlético Marte

0.96

Platense FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 56 away

1.12

creates per match

0.91

1.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Platense FC

1.12

Atlético Marte

0.91

allows per match

Platense FC

1.00

Atlético Marte

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense FC+0.00on par

Atlético Marte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense FC ↓

Atlético Marte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Platense FC or draw

74%

Platense FC or Atlético Marte

73%

Draw or Atlético Marte

53%

Winning margin

Platense FC wins by 2+

22%

Atlético Marte wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Platense FC 1+ goals

75%

Platense FC 2+ goals

40%

Platense FC 3+ goals

16%

Atlético Marte 1+ goals

62%

Atlético Marte 2+ goals

25%

Atlético Marte 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Platense FC (draw refunded)

64%

Atlético Marte (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense FC at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Atlético Marte away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense FC attack 1.12 + Atlético Marte defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Atlético Marte attack 0.91 + Platense FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Platense FC scores more

47%

level

27%

Atlético Marte scores more

26%

Platense FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff