Atlético Marte 0–1 Platense FC: Result & Stats

Atlético Marte

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Platense FC

3/23/2022

Primera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 14Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Marte34%

×Draw27%

Platense FC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MarteExpected goals in this matchPlatense FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.31

Atlético Marte

1.20

Platense FC

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 27 away

1.18

creates per match

1.07

1.56

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Atlético Marte

1.18

Platense FC

1.07

allows per match

Atlético Marte

1.56

Platense FC

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Marte+0.00on par

Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Marte ↓

Platense FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Marte or draw

61%

Atlético Marte or Platense FC

73%

Draw or Platense FC

66%

Winning margin

Atlético Marte wins by 2+

14%

Platense FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atlético Marte 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Marte 2+ goals

34%

Atlético Marte 3+ goals

12%

Platense FC 1+ goals

73%

Platense FC 2+ goals

38%

Platense FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Marte (draw refunded)

46%

Platense FC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Marte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Marte attack 1.18 + Platense FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Platense FC attack 1.07 + Atlético Marte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Marte scores more

34%

level

27%

Platense FC scores more

39%

Platense FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff