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Plateau United vs Lobi Stars — NPFL 2019

Plateau United
Plateau United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
2/18/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 20Jos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Plateau United65%
×Draw24%
Lobi Stars11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plateau United
1.62
Lobi Stars
0.49

Plateau United creates 231% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 113 away

creates per match

Plateau United
1.76
Lobi Stars
0.53

allows per match

Plateau United
0.45
Lobi Stars
1.48

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par
Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Lobi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw
89%
Plateau United or Lobi Stars
76%
Draw or Lobi Stars
35%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+
37%
Lobi Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals
80%
Plateau United 2+ goals
48%
Plateau United 3+ goals
22%
Lobi Stars 1+ goals
39%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
9%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)
86%
Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.48 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Lobi Stars defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.62

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Plateau United scores more
65%
level
24%
Lobi Stars scores more
11%

Plateau United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Plateau United 2–1 Lobi Stars

Plateau United beat Lobi Stars 2-1 in NPFL on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Jos International Stadium in Jos.