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Lobi Stars vs Plateau United — NPFL 2019

Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plateau United
Plateau United
12/14/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 17Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Lobi Stars54%
×Draw27%
Plateau United18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobi Stars
1.42
Plateau United
0.70

Lobi Stars creates 103% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 127 away

creates per match

Lobi Stars
1.46
Plateau United
0.65

allows per match

Lobi Stars
0.75
Plateau United
1.39

finishing

Lobi Stars+0.00on par
Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobi Stars ↓

Plateau United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lobi Stars or draw
82%
Lobi Stars or Plateau United
73%
Draw or Plateau United
46%

Winning margin

Lobi Stars wins by 2+
27%
Plateau United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lobi Stars 1+ goals
76%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
41%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
17%
Plateau United 1+ goals
50%
Plateau United 2+ goals
16%
Plateau United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
75%
Plateau United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobi Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.75 · 114 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobi Stars attack 1.46 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Lobi Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lobi Stars scores more
54%
level
27%
Plateau United scores more
18%

Lobi Stars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lobi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lobi Stars vs Plateau United

Lobi Stars beat Plateau United 1-0 in NPFL on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Lafia Township Stadium in Lafia.