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Plateau United vs Kun Khalifat FC — NPFL 2019

Plateau United
Plateau United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kun Khalifat FC
Kun Khalifat FC
4/19/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 35Rwang Pam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Plateau United59%
×Draw26%
Kun Khalifat FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plateau United
1.52
Kun Khalifat FC
0.64

Plateau United creates 138% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 18 away

creates per match

Plateau United
1.76
Kun Khalifat FC
0.83

allows per match

Plateau United
0.45
Kun Khalifat FC
1.28

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par
Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Kun Khalifat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw
84%
Plateau United or Kun Khalifat FC
74%
Draw or Kun Khalifat FC
41%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+
31%
Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals
78%
Plateau United 2+ goals
45%
Plateau United 3+ goals
20%
Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals
47%
Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals
14%
Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)
79%
Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Kun Khalifat FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kun Khalifat FC attack 0.83 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Plateau United scores more
59%
level
26%
Kun Khalifat FC scores more
16%

Plateau United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Plateau United 1–1 Kun Khalifat FC

Plateau United and Kun Khalifat FC drew 1-1 in NPFL on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Rwang Pam Stadium in Jos.