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Kun Khalifat FC vs Plateau United — NPFL 2019

Kun Khalifat FC
Kun Khalifat FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Plateau United
Plateau United
11/30/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kun Khalifat FC52%
×Draw27%
Plateau United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kun Khalifat FC
1.40
Plateau United
0.77

Kun Khalifat FC creates 82% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 127 away

creates per match

Kun Khalifat FC
1.42
Plateau United
0.65

allows per match

Kun Khalifat FC
0.89
Plateau United
1.39

finishing

Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par
Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kun Khalifat FC ↓

Plateau United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kun Khalifat FC or draw
79%
Kun Khalifat FC or Plateau United
73%
Draw or Plateau United
48%

Winning margin

Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+
26%
Plateau United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals
75%
Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals
41%
Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals
17%
Plateau United 1+ goals
54%
Plateau United 2+ goals
18%
Plateau United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)
72%
Plateau United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kun Khalifat FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kun Khalifat FC attack 1.42 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kun Khalifat FC scores more
52%
level
27%
Plateau United scores more
21%

Kun Khalifat FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kun Khalifat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kun Khalifat FC vs Plateau United

Kun Khalifat FC beat Plateau United 2-0 in NPFL on November 30, 2025.