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Plateau United vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Plateau United
Plateau United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
1/28/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 23Rwang Pam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Plateau United58%
×Draw27%
Enugu Rangers15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plateau United
1.44
Enugu Rangers
0.58

Plateau United creates 148% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 130 away

creates per match

Plateau United
1.76
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Plateau United
0.45
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw
85%
Plateau United or Enugu Rangers
73%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
42%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+
30%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals
76%
Plateau United 2+ goals
42%
Plateau United 3+ goals
18%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
44%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
12%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)
80%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Plateau United scores more
58%
level
27%
Enugu Rangers scores more
15%

Plateau United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Plateau United 2–1 Enugu Rangers

Plateau United beat Enugu Rangers 2-1 in NPFL on January 28, 2026.

The match was played at Rwang Pam Stadium in Jos.