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Enugu Rangers vs Plateau United — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plateau United
Plateau United
4/28/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 32Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Enugu Rangers60%
×Draw26%
Plateau United14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.50
Plateau United
0.58

Enugu Rangers creates 159% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 127 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
Plateau United
0.65

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
Plateau United
1.39

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Plateau United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
86%
Enugu Rangers or Plateau United
74%
Draw or Plateau United
40%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
32%
Plateau United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
78%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
44%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
19%
Plateau United 1+ goals
44%
Plateau United 2+ goals
12%
Plateau United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
81%
Plateau United (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
60%
level
26%
Plateau United scores more
14%

Enugu Rangers at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Enugu Rangers 2–0 Plateau United

Enugu Rangers beat Plateau United 2-0 in NPFL on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium in Enugu.