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Plasencia vs Montijo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Plasencia
Plasencia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Montijo
Montijo
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2Ciudad Deportiva de Plasencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Plasencia42%
×Draw28%
Montijo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plasencia
1.25
Montijo
1.02

Plasencia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 60 away

creates per match

Plasencia
1.25
Montijo
1.12

allows per match

Plasencia
0.91
Montijo
1.25

finishing

Plasencia+0.00on par
Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plasencia ↓

Montijo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Plasencia or draw
70%
Plasencia or Montijo
72%
Draw or Montijo
58%

Winning margin

Plasencia wins by 2+
18%
Montijo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Plasencia 1+ goals
71%
Plasencia 2+ goals
36%
Plasencia 3+ goals
13%
Montijo 1+ goals
64%
Montijo 2+ goals
27%
Montijo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Plasencia (draw refunded)
58%
Montijo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plasencia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Montijo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plasencia attack 1.25 + Montijo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Montijo attack 1.12 + Plasencia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Plasencia scores more
42%
level
28%
Montijo scores more
30%

Plasencia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Plasencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plasencia vs Montijo

Montijo beat Plasencia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Plasencia in Plasencia.