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Montijo vs Plasencia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Montijo
Montijo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Plasencia
Plasencia
1/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 22Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Montijo50%
×Draw28%
Plasencia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montijo
1.39
Plasencia
0.82

Montijo creates 70% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 57 away

creates per match

Montijo
1.37
Plasencia
0.86

allows per match

Montijo
0.79
Plasencia
1.40

finishing

Montijo+0.00on par
Plasencia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montijo ↓

Plasencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Montijo or draw
78%
Montijo or Plasencia
72%
Draw or Plasencia
50%

Winning margin

Montijo wins by 2+
25%
Plasencia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Montijo 1+ goals
75%
Montijo 2+ goals
40%
Montijo 3+ goals
16%
Plasencia 1+ goals
56%
Plasencia 2+ goals
20%
Plasencia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Montijo (draw refunded)
69%
Plasencia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montijo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.79 · 62 matches

Plasencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montijo attack 1.37 + Plasencia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Plasencia attack 0.86 + Montijo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Montijo scores more
50%
level
28%
Plasencia scores more
22%

Montijo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Montijo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Montijo 0–0 Plasencia

Montijo and Plasencia drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez in Montijo.