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Plasencia vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Plasencia
Plasencia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
1/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 14Ciudad Deportiva de Plasencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Plasencia44%
×Draw29%
Extremadura UD II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plasencia
1.25
Extremadura UD II
0.92

Plasencia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 42 away

creates per match

Plasencia
1.25
Extremadura UD II
0.93

allows per match

Plasencia
0.91
Extremadura UD II
1.24

finishing

Plasencia+0.00on par
Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plasencia ↓

Extremadura UD II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Plasencia or draw
73%
Plasencia or Extremadura UD II
71%
Draw or Extremadura UD II
56%

Winning margin

Plasencia wins by 2+
20%
Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Plasencia 1+ goals
71%
Plasencia 2+ goals
36%
Plasencia 3+ goals
13%
Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
60%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
23%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Plasencia (draw refunded)
62%
Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plasencia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plasencia attack 1.25 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Plasencia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Plasencia scores more
44%
level
29%
Extremadura UD II scores more
27%

Plasencia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Plasencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plasencia 2 – 0 Extremadura UD II

Plasencia beat Extremadura UD II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Plasencia in Plasencia.