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Extremadura UD II vs Plasencia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
CANC
00:00
Plasencia
Plasencia
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 32Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Extremadura UD II45%
×Draw27%
Plasencia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura UD II
1.38
Plasencia
1.03

Extremadura UD II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 57 away

creates per match

Extremadura UD II
1.35
Plasencia
0.86

allows per match

Extremadura UD II
1.20
Plasencia
1.40

finishing

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par
Plasencia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura UD II ↓

Plasencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Extremadura UD II or draw
72%
Extremadura UD II or Plasencia
73%
Draw or Plasencia
55%

Winning margin

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
21%
Plasencia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
75%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
40%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
16%
Plasencia 1+ goals
64%
Plasencia 2+ goals
28%
Plasencia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
62%
Plasencia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura UD II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

Plasencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura UD II attack 1.35 + Plasencia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Plasencia attack 0.86 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Extremadura UD II scores more
45%
level
27%
Plasencia scores more
28%

Extremadura UD II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Extremadura UD II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Extremadura UD II face Plasencia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 returns with Extremadura UD II hosting Plasencia. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Extremadura UD II host Plasencia at Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.