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Plačkovica vs Pitu Guli — Second League 2019

Plačkovica
Plačkovica
CANC
00:00
Pitu Guli
Pitu Guli
3/22/2020Second LeagueSecond League · East - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Plačkovica61%
×Draw20%
Pitu Guli18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plačkovica
2.13
Pitu Guli
1.08

Plačkovica creates 97% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Plačkovica
0.76
Pitu Guli
0.88

allows per match

Plačkovica
1.29
Pitu Guli
3.50

finishing

Plačkovica+0.00on par
Pitu Guli+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plačkovica ↓

Pitu Guli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Plačkovica or draw
82%
Plačkovica or Pitu Guli
80%
Draw or Pitu Guli
39%

Winning margin

Plačkovica wins by 2+
38%
Pitu Guli wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Plačkovica 1+ goals
88%
Plačkovica 2+ goals
63%
Plačkovica 3+ goals
35%
Pitu Guli 1+ goals
66%
Pitu Guli 2+ goals
29%
Pitu Guli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Plačkovica (draw refunded)
77%
Pitu Guli (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plačkovica at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Pitu Guli away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plačkovica attack 0.76 + Pitu Guli defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Pitu Guli attack 0.88 + Plačkovica defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Plačkovica scores more
61%
level
20%
Pitu Guli scores more
18%

Plačkovica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Plačkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plačkovica host Pitu Guli

March 22, 2020: Plačkovica take on Pitu Guli in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.