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Pitu Guli vs Plačkovica — Second League 2019

Pitu Guli
Pitu Guli
FT
0 – 1
Plačkovica
Plačkovica
10/20/2019Second LeagueSecond League · East - 9Stadion Dojransko Ezero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pitu Guli24%
×Draw21%
Plačkovica55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pitu Guli
1.27
Plačkovica
2.04

Plačkovica creates 61% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

creates per match

Pitu Guli
0.50
Plačkovica
0.95

allows per match

Pitu Guli
3.13
Plačkovica
2.05

finishing

Pitu Guli+0.00on par
Plačkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitu Guli ↓

Plačkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pitu Guli or draw
45%
Pitu Guli or Plačkovica
79%
Draw or Plačkovica
76%

Winning margin

Pitu Guli wins by 2+
10%
Plačkovica wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Pitu Guli 1+ goals
72%
Pitu Guli 2+ goals
36%
Pitu Guli 3+ goals
14%
Plačkovica 1+ goals
87%
Plačkovica 2+ goals
60%
Plačkovica 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Pitu Guli (draw refunded)
30%
Plačkovica (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitu Guli at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

Plačkovica away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitu Guli attack 0.50 + Plačkovica defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Plačkovica attack 0.95 + Pitu Guli defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pitu Guli scores more
24%
level
21%
Plačkovica scores more
55%

Plačkovica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Plačkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pitu Guli vs Plačkovica

Plačkovica beat Pitu Guli 1-0 in Second League on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dojransko Ezero in Nov Dojran.