Plačkovica 2–1 Osogovo: Result & Stats

Plačkovica

FT

2 – 1

Osogovo

10/11/2019

Second League · East - 8Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Plačkovica40%

×Draw27%

Osogovo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlačkovicaExpected goals in this matchOsogovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.17

Plačkovica

1.31

Osogovo

1.17

Plačkovica creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 66 away

0.77

creates per match

1.02

1.32

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Plačkovica

0.77

Osogovo

1.02

allows per match

Plačkovica

1.32

Osogovo

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plačkovica+0.00on par

Osogovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plačkovica ↓

Osogovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Plačkovica or draw

67%

Plačkovica or Osogovo

73%

Draw or Osogovo

60%

Winning margin

Plačkovica wins by 2+

18%

Osogovo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Plačkovica 1+ goals

73%

Plačkovica 2+ goals

38%

Plačkovica 3+ goals

14%

Osogovo 1+ goals

69%

Osogovo 2+ goals

33%

Osogovo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Plačkovica (draw refunded)

55%

Osogovo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plačkovica at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Osogovo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plačkovica attack 0.77 + Osogovo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.31

Osogovo attack 1.02 + Plačkovica defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Plačkovica scores more

40%

level

27%

Osogovo scores more

33%

Plačkovica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Plačkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff