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Osogovo vs Plačkovica — Second League 2019

Osogovo
Osogovo
FT
1 – 1
Plačkovica
Plačkovica
10/24/2020Second LeagueSecond League · East - 9Stadion Nikola Mantov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Osogovo51%
×Draw24%
Plačkovica25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osogovo
1.72
Plačkovica
1.14

Osogovo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 22 away

creates per match

Osogovo
1.39
Plačkovica
0.95

allows per match

Osogovo
1.33
Plačkovica
2.05

finishing

Osogovo+0.00on par
Plačkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osogovo ↓

Plačkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Osogovo or draw
75%
Osogovo or Plačkovica
76%
Draw or Plačkovica
49%

Winning margin

Osogovo wins by 2+
28%
Plačkovica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Osogovo 1+ goals
82%
Osogovo 2+ goals
51%
Osogovo 3+ goals
25%
Plačkovica 1+ goals
68%
Plačkovica 2+ goals
32%
Plačkovica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Osogovo (draw refunded)
67%
Plačkovica (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osogovo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Plačkovica away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osogovo attack 1.39 + Plačkovica defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.72

Plačkovica attack 0.95 + Osogovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Osogovo scores more
51%
level
24%
Plačkovica scores more
25%

Osogovo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Osogovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Osogovo 1–1 Plačkovica

Osogovo and Plačkovica drew 1-1 in Second League on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Nikola Mantov in Kočani.