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Plácido de Castro vs Independente PA — Serie D 2026

Plácido de Castro
Plácido de Castro
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Independente PA
Independente PA
5/20/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio José Ferreira Lima (Plácido de Castro, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Plácido de Castro49%
×Draw21%
Independente PA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plácido de Castro
2.18
Independente PA
1.67

Plácido de Castro creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Plácido de Castro
2.00
Independente PA
1.00

allows per match

Plácido de Castro
2.33
Independente PA
2.36

finishing

Plácido de Castro+0.00on par
Independente PA+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plácido de Castro ↓

Independente PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Plácido de Castro or draw
70%
Plácido de Castro or Independente PA
79%
Draw or Independente PA
51%

Winning margin

Plácido de Castro wins by 2+
29%
Independente PA wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Plácido de Castro 1+ goals
89%
Plácido de Castro 2+ goals
64%
Plácido de Castro 3+ goals
37%
Independente PA 1+ goals
81%
Independente PA 2+ goals
50%
Independente PA 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Plácido de Castro (draw refunded)
62%
Independente PA (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plácido de Castro at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Independente PA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plácido de Castro attack 2.00 + Independente PA defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Independente PA attack 1.00 + Plácido de Castro defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Plácido de Castro scores more
49%
level
21%
Independente PA scores more
30%

Plácido de Castro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Plácido de Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Plácido de Castro 1–3 Independente PA

Independente PA beat Plácido de Castro 3-1 in Serie D on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio José Ferreira Lima (Plácido de Castro, Acre).