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Independente PA vs Plácido de Castro — Serie D 2026

Independente PA
Independente PA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Plácido de Castro
Plácido de Castro
4/29/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 2Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias (Tucuruí, Pará)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independente PA79%
×Draw13%
Plácido de Castro8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente PA
2.91
Plácido de Castro
0.83

Independente PA creates 251% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Independente PA
1.82
Plácido de Castro
0.67

allows per match

Independente PA
1.00
Plácido de Castro
4.00

finishing

Independente PA+0.00on par
Plácido de Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente PA ↓

Plácido de Castro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Independente PA or draw
92%
Independente PA or Plácido de Castro
87%
Draw or Plácido de Castro
21%

Winning margin

Independente PA wins by 2+
59%
Plácido de Castro wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Independente PA 1+ goals
94%
Independente PA 2+ goals
78%
Independente PA 3+ goals
54%
Plácido de Castro 1+ goals
56%
Plácido de Castro 2+ goals
20%
Plácido de Castro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independente PA (draw refunded)
91%
Plácido de Castro (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente PA at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Plácido de Castro away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente PA attack 1.82 + Plácido de Castro defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.91

Plácido de Castro attack 0.67 + Independente PA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Independente PA scores more
79%
level
13%
Plácido de Castro scores more
8%

Independente PA at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Independente PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Independente PA 1–0 Plácido de Castro

Independente PA beat Plácido de Castro 1-0 in Serie D on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias (Tucuruí, Pará).