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Pitu Guli vs Pehchevo — Second League 2019

Pitu Guli
Pitu Guli
FT
1 – 2
Pehchevo
Pehchevo
9/21/2019Second LeagueSecond League · East - 5Stadion Mogila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pitu Guli15%
×Draw20%
Pehchevo65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pitu Guli
0.91
Pehchevo
2.12

Pehchevo creates 133% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 36 away

creates per match

Pitu Guli
0.50
Pehchevo
1.11

allows per match

Pitu Guli
3.13
Pehchevo
1.31

finishing

Pitu Guli+0.00on par
Pehchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitu Guli ↓

Pehchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pitu Guli or draw
35%
Pitu Guli or Pehchevo
80%
Draw or Pehchevo
85%

Winning margin

Pitu Guli wins by 2+
5%
Pehchevo wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Pitu Guli 1+ goals
60%
Pitu Guli 2+ goals
23%
Pitu Guli 3+ goals
6%
Pehchevo 1+ goals
88%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
62%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Pitu Guli (draw refunded)
19%
Pehchevo (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitu Guli at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

Pehchevo away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitu Guli attack 0.50 + Pehchevo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.91

Pehchevo attack 1.11 + Pitu Guli defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Pitu Guli scores more
15%
level
20%
Pehchevo scores more
65%

Pehchevo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Pehchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pitu Guli vs Pehchevo

Pehchevo beat Pitu Guli 2-1 in Second League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Mogila in Prilep.