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Pehchevo vs Pitu Guli — Second League 2019

Pehchevo
Pehchevo
FT
3 – 1
Pitu Guli
Pitu Guli
11/30/2019Second LeagueSecond League · East - 14Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pehchevo71%
×Draw17%
Pitu Guli13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pehchevo
2.54
Pitu Guli
0.98

Pehchevo creates 159% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 8 away

creates per match

Pehchevo
1.59
Pitu Guli
0.88

allows per match

Pehchevo
1.08
Pitu Guli
3.50

finishing

Pehchevo+0.00on par
Pitu Guli+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pehchevo ↓

Pitu Guli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Pehchevo or draw
87%
Pehchevo or Pitu Guli
83%
Draw or Pitu Guli
29%

Winning margin

Pehchevo wins by 2+
49%
Pitu Guli wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pehchevo 1+ goals
92%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
72%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
46%
Pitu Guli 1+ goals
62%
Pitu Guli 2+ goals
26%
Pitu Guli 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pehchevo (draw refunded)
85%
Pitu Guli (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pehchevo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Pitu Guli away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pehchevo attack 1.59 + Pitu Guli defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.54

Pitu Guli attack 0.88 + Pehchevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Pehchevo scores more
71%
level
17%
Pitu Guli scores more
13%

Pehchevo at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Pehchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pehchevo vs Pitu Guli

Pehchevo beat Pitu Guli 3-1 in Second League on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pehchevo.