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Pitu Guli vs Kozuv Gevgelija — Second League 2019

Pitu Guli
Pitu Guli
CANC
00:00
Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
3/16/2020Second LeagueSecond League · East - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pitu Guli16%
×Draw21%
Kozuv Gevgelija63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pitu Guli
0.90
Kozuv Gevgelija
2.01

Kozuv Gevgelija creates 123% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 81 away

creates per match

Pitu Guli
0.50
Kozuv Gevgelija
0.89

allows per match

Pitu Guli
3.13
Kozuv Gevgelija
1.30

finishing

Pitu Guli+0.00on par
Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitu Guli ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pitu Guli or draw
37%
Pitu Guli or Kozuv Gevgelija
79%
Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija
84%

Winning margin

Pitu Guli wins by 2+
5%
Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Pitu Guli 1+ goals
59%
Pitu Guli 2+ goals
23%
Pitu Guli 3+ goals
6%
Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
87%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
59%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Pitu Guli (draw refunded)
20%
Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitu Guli at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitu Guli attack 0.50 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.90

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Pitu Guli defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Pitu Guli scores more
16%
level
21%
Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
63%

Kozuv Gevgelija at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kozuv Gevgelija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pitu Guli face Kozuv Gevgelija (Second League)

Second League returns with Pitu Guli hosting Kozuv Gevgelija. Match starts March 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.