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Kozuv Gevgelija vs Pitu Guli — Second League 2019

Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
FT
6 – 1
Pitu Guli
Pitu Guli
10/12/2019Second LeagueSecond League · East - 8Stadion FK Kožuf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kozuv Gevgelija72%
×Draw16%
Pitu Guli12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozuv Gevgelija
2.60
Pitu Guli
0.98

Kozuv Gevgelija creates 165% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.71
Pitu Guli
0.88

allows per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.07
Pitu Guli
3.50

finishing

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par
Pitu Guli+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozuv Gevgelija ↓

Pitu Guli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kozuv Gevgelija or draw
88%
Kozuv Gevgelija or Pitu Guli
84%
Draw or Pitu Guli
28%

Winning margin

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
50%
Pitu Guli wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
92%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
73%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
47%
Pitu Guli 1+ goals
62%
Pitu Guli 2+ goals
26%
Pitu Guli 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
85%
Pitu Guli (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozuv Gevgelija at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Pitu Guli away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 1.71 + Pitu Guli defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.60

Pitu Guli attack 0.88 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
72%
level
16%
Pitu Guli scores more
12%

Kozuv Gevgelija at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Kozuv Gevgelija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Kozuv Gevgelija 6–1 Pitu Guli

Kozuv Gevgelija beat Pitu Guli 6-1 in Second League on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kožuf in Gevgelija.