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Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
7/30/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 29Highmark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds55%
×Draw24%
Tulsa Roughnecks21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.71
Tulsa Roughnecks
0.95

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 80% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 130 away

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.61
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0.72
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw
79%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds or Tulsa Roughnecks
76%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
45%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
30%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
82%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
51%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
24%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
61%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
25%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
73%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.72 · 134 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.61 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
55%
level
24%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
21%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tulsa Roughnecks

Pittsburgh Riverhounds beat Tulsa Roughnecks 1-0 in USL Championship on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Highmark Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.