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Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Orange County SC — USL Championship 2026

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Orange County SC
Orange County SC
3/16/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 2Highmark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds50%
×Draw25%
Orange County SC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.57
Orange County SC
1.04

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 51% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 138 away

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.61
Orange County SC
1.35

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0.72
Orange County SC
1.53

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par
Orange County SC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

Orange County SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw
75%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds or Orange County SC
75%
Draw or Orange County SC
50%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
26%
Orange County SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
79%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
46%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
21%
Orange County SC 1+ goals
65%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
28%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
66%
Orange County SC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.72 · 134 matches

Orange County SC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.61 + Orange County SC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.57

Orange County SC attack 1.35 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
50%
level
25%
Orange County SC scores more
25%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Orange County SC

Orange County SC beat Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-0 in USL Championship on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Highmark Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.