Orange County SC 1–0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Orange County SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

8/17/2023

USL Championship · Round 29Championship Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Orange County SC40%

×Draw27%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orange County SCExpected goals in this matchPittsburgh Riverhounds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.20

Orange County SC

1.35

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.20

Orange County SC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 133 away

1.60

creates per match

1.32

1.07

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Orange County SC

1.60

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.32

allows per match

Orange County SC

1.07

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orange County SC+0.00on par

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC ↓

Pittsburgh Riverhounds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Orange County SC or draw

67%

Orange County SC or Pittsburgh Riverhounds

73%

Draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds

60%

Winning margin

Orange County SC wins by 2+

18%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Orange County SC 1+ goals

74%

Orange County SC 2+ goals

39%

Orange County SC 3+ goals

15%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals

70%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals

34%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC (draw refunded)

55%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC attack 1.60 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.32 + Orange County SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orange County SC scores more

40%

level

27%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more

33%

Orange County SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orange County SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff