Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2–2 Nashville

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nashville

4/27/2019

USL Championship · Round 14Highmark Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds43%

×Draw28%

Nashville29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pittsburgh RiverhoundsExpected goals in this matchNashville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.27

Nashville

1.00

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 27% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 34 away

1.61

creates per match

1.29

0.72

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.61

Nashville

1.29

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

0.72

Nashville

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

Nashville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw

71%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or Nashville

72%

Draw or Nashville

57%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+

19%

Nashville wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals

72%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals

36%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals

14%

Nashville 1+ goals

63%

Nashville 2+ goals

26%

Nashville 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)

59%

Nashville (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.72 · 134 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.61 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nashville attack 1.29 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more

43%

level

28%

Nashville scores more

29%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff