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Nashville vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — USL Championship 2018

Nashville
Nashville
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3/24/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 3Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nashville45%
×Draw27%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nashville
1.39
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.04

Nashville creates 34% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 133 away

creates per match

Nashville
1.67
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.32

allows per match

Nashville
0.75
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.11

finishing

Nashville+0.00on par
Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville ↓

Pittsburgh Riverhounds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nashville or draw
72%
Nashville or Pittsburgh Riverhounds
73%
Draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds
55%

Winning margin

Nashville wins by 2+
21%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nashville 1+ goals
75%
Nashville 2+ goals
40%
Nashville 3+ goals
16%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
65%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
28%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nashville (draw refunded)
61%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville attack 1.67 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.32 + Nashville defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nashville scores more
45%
level
27%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
28%

Nashville at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Nashville 0–0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Nashville and Pittsburgh Riverhounds drew 0-0 in USL Championship on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee).