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Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Louisville City — USL Championship 2026

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Louisville City
Louisville City
6/19/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 18Highmark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds42%
×Draw27%
Louisville City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.37
Louisville City
1.16

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 18% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 130 away

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.61
Louisville City
1.59

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0.72
Louisville City
1.12

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par
Louisville City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

Louisville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw
68%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds or Louisville City
73%
Draw or Louisville City
58%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
19%
Louisville City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
75%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
40%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
16%
Louisville City 1+ goals
69%
Louisville City 2+ goals
32%
Louisville City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
57%
Louisville City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.72 · 134 matches

Louisville City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.61 + Louisville City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Louisville City attack 1.59 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
42%
level
27%
Louisville City scores more
32%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Louisville City

Louisville City beat Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 in USL Championship on June 19, 2024.

The match was played at Highmark Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.