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Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — USL Championship 2026

Louisville City
Louisville City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
5/10/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 10Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Louisville City47%
×Draw25%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City
1.62
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.19

Louisville City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 133 away

creates per match

Louisville City
2.13
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.32

allows per match

Louisville City
1.05
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.11

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par
Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

Pittsburgh Riverhounds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw
72%
Louisville City or Pittsburgh Riverhounds
75%
Draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds
53%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+
25%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals
80%
Louisville City 2+ goals
48%
Louisville City 3+ goals
22%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
70%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
33%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)
63%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 2.13 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.62

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.32 + Louisville City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Louisville City scores more
47%
level
25%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
28%

Louisville City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Louisville City 0–0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Louisville City and Pittsburgh Riverhounds drew 0-0 in USL Championship on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium.