Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 0–0 CS Uruguay

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CS Uruguay

9/21/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC51%

×Draw25%

CS Uruguay24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FCExpected goals in this matchCS Uruguay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.99

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

1.56

CS Uruguay

0.99

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 124 away

1.33

creates per match

1.31

0.67

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

1.33

CS Uruguay

1.31

allows per match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

0.67

CS Uruguay

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par

CS Uruguay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC ↓

CS Uruguay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or draw

76%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or CS Uruguay

75%

Draw or CS Uruguay

49%

Winning margin

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+

26%

CS Uruguay wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals

79%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals

46%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals

21%

CS Uruguay 1+ goals

63%

CS Uruguay 2+ goals

26%

CS Uruguay 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)

68%

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

CS Uruguay away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.78 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 1.33 + CS Uruguay defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

CS Uruguay attack 1.31 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more

51%

level

25%

CS Uruguay scores more

24%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff