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CS Uruguay vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
11/9/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

CS Uruguay50%
×Draw26%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Uruguay
1.54
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.00

CS Uruguay creates 54% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 14 away

creates per match

CS Uruguay
1.51
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
0.79

allows per match

CS Uruguay
1.21
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.57

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw
75%
CS Uruguay or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
74%
Draw or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
50%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+
26%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals
79%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
45%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
20%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals
63%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals
26%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
67%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 0.79 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CS Uruguay scores more
50%
level
26%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more
25%

CS Uruguay at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CS Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: CS Uruguay 1–0 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

CS Uruguay beat Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on November 9, 2025.