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Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
2/13/2026Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC52%
×Draw25%
Cariari Pococi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.56
Cariari Pococi
0.95

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 107 away

creates per match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.33
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
0.67
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or draw
77%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or Cariari Pococi
75%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
48%

Winning margin

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+
27%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals
79%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals
46%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals
21%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
61%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
25%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)
69%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 1.33 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more
52%
level
25%
Cariari Pococi scores more
23%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs Cariari Pococi

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC beat Cariari Pococi 4-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 13, 2026.