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Cariari Pococi vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
AWD
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
9/14/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cariari Pococi50%
×Draw25%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.63
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.09

Cariari Pococi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
0.79

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.57

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
75%
Cariari Pococi or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
75%
Draw or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
50%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
26%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
80%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
48%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
22%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals
66%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals
30%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
66%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 0.79 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
50%
level
25%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more
25%

Cariari Pococi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cariari Pococi face Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (Liga de Ascenso)

Liga de Ascenso returns with Cariari Pococi hosting Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC. Match starts September 14, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.