Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2–0 Aserri FC

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aserri FC

8/19/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 1Estadio Carlos Alvarado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC52%

×Draw26%

Aserri FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FCExpected goals in this matchAserri FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.87

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

1.50

Aserri FC

0.87

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 106 away

1.33

creates per match

1.07

0.67

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

1.33

Aserri FC

1.07

allows per match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

0.67

Aserri FC

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par

Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC ↓

Aserri FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or draw

78%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or Aserri FC

74%

Draw or Aserri FC

48%

Winning margin

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+

27%

Aserri FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals

78%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals

44%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals

19%

Aserri FC 1+ goals

58%

Aserri FC 2+ goals

22%

Aserri FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)

70%

Aserri FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 1.33 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more

52%

level

26%

Aserri FC scores more

22%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff