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Aserri FC vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
10/23/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aserri FC47%
×Draw26%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.45
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.02

Aserri FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 14 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
0.79

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.57

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
73%
Aserri FC or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
74%
Draw or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
53%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
23%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
77%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
42%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
18%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals
64%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals
27%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
64%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 0.79 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aserri FC scores more
47%
level
26%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more
27%

Aserri FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Aserri FC 1–0 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

Aserri FC beat Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 23, 2025.