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Písek vs Králův Dvůr — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Písek
Písek
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
5/10/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 22Městský sportovní areál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Písek53%
×Draw23%
Králův Dvůr24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Písek
1.81
Králův Dvůr
1.15

Písek creates 57% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 70 away

creates per match

Písek
1.66
Králův Dvůr
1.16

allows per match

Písek
1.15
Králův Dvůr
1.97

finishing

Písek+0.00on par
Králův Dvůr+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Písek ↓

Králův Dvůr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Písek or draw
76%
Písek or Králův Dvůr
77%
Draw or Králův Dvůr
47%

Winning margin

Písek wins by 2+
29%
Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Písek 1+ goals
84%
Písek 2+ goals
54%
Písek 3+ goals
27%
Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
68%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
32%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Písek (draw refunded)
69%
Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Písek at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

Králův Dvůr away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.97 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Písek attack 1.66 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.81

Králův Dvůr attack 1.16 + Písek defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Písek scores more
53%
level
23%
Králův Dvůr scores more
24%

Písek at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Písek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Písek 2–2 Králův Dvůr

Písek and Králův Dvůr drew 2-2 in 3. liga - CFL A on May 10, 2023.

The match was played at Městský sportovní areál in Písek.