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Králův Dvůr vs Písek — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Písek
Písek
11/4/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 14Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Králův Dvůr50%
×Draw22%
Písek28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Králův Dvůr
1.92
Písek
1.38

Králův Dvůr creates 39% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 84 away

creates per match

Králův Dvůr
1.93
Písek
1.36

allows per match

Králův Dvůr
1.40
Písek
1.90

finishing

Králův Dvůr+0.00on par
Písek+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Králův Dvůr ↓

Písek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Králův Dvůr or draw
72%
Králův Dvůr or Písek
78%
Draw or Písek
50%

Winning margin

Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
28%
Písek wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
85%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
57%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
30%
Písek 1+ goals
75%
Písek 2+ goals
40%
Písek 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
64%
Písek (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Králův Dvůr at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Písek away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Králův Dvůr attack 1.93 + Písek defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.92

Písek attack 1.36 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Králův Dvůr scores more
50%
level
22%
Písek scores more
28%

Králův Dvůr at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Králův Dvůr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Králův Dvůr vs Písek

Písek beat Králův Dvůr 5-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr in Králuv Dvůr.