Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pisa vs Salernitana — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Salernitana
Salernitana
M. Fabbro 13'
D. Di Quinzio 6'
L. Jallow 79'
10/29/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 10Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Pisa50%
×Draw27%
Salernitana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.46
Salernitana
0.92

Pisa creates 59% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 75 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.48
Salernitana
0.83

allows per match

Pisa
1.00
Salernitana
1.43

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
76%
Pisa or Salernitana
73%
Draw or Salernitana
50%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
25%
Salernitana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
77%
Pisa 2+ goals
43%
Pisa 3+ goals
18%
Salernitana 1+ goals
60%
Salernitana 2+ goals
23%
Salernitana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
68%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Salernitana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Salernitana attack 0.83 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pisa scores more
50%
level
27%
Salernitana scores more
24%

Pisa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
G. IngrossoPisaPisa · D
7.5

Match Events

6'
D. Di Quinzio
11'
Francesco Di Tacchio
13'
M. Fabbro↳ F. Lisi
54'
Milan Đurić
59'
C. Lombardi← S. Kiyine
63'
Alessandro De Vitis
65'
R. Gucher← A. De Vitis
73'
M. Marin← D. Di Quinzio
73'
C. Gondo← F. Maistro
73'
J. Akpa Akpro← M. Odjer
75'
Marius Marin
76'
R. Aya← N. Siega
79'
Stefano Gori
79'
L. Jallow
90'
Walter López

Possession

45%Pisa

Shots

5Pisa

Pass accuracy

49%Pisa

Statistics

PisaSalernitana
Overview
45%Possession55%
5Total Shots14
0Corners2
21Fouls25
Shots
5Total Shots14
3On Target5
2Off Target5
0Blocked4
2Inside Box11
3Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
357Total Passes424
269Accurate Passes337
75%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
21Fouls25
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Pisa vs Salernitana

Pisa beat Salernitana 2-1 in Serie B on October 29, 2019.

Goals: D. Di Quinzio (6'), M. Fabbro (13'), L. Jallow (79').

Salernitana controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.