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Pisa vs Lecce — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lecce
Lecce
12/11/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 17Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Pisa39%
×Draw27%
Lecce34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.34
Lecce
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 55 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.48
Lecce
1.45

allows per match

Pisa
1.00
Lecce
1.20

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
66%
Pisa or Lecce
73%
Draw or Lecce
61%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
18%
Lecce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
74%
Pisa 2+ goals
39%
Pisa 3+ goals
15%
Lecce 1+ goals
71%
Lecce 2+ goals
35%
Lecce 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
54%
Lecce (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Lecce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lecce attack 1.45 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pisa scores more
39%
level
27%
Lecce scores more
34%

Pisa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pisa 1 – 0 Lecce

Pisa beat Lecce 1-0 in Serie B on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.