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Lecce vs Pisa — Serie B 2018

Lecce
Lecce
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pisa
Pisa
P. Faragò 85'
F. Lucioni 18'
4/25/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Lecce50%
×Draw24%
Pisa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.67
Pisa
1.13

Lecce creates 48% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 116 away

creates per match

Lecce
1.98
Pisa
1.21

allows per match

Lecce
1.04
Pisa
1.36

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par
Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Pisa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
74%
Lecce or Pisa
76%
Draw or Pisa
50%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
27%
Pisa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
81%
Lecce 2+ goals
50%
Lecce 3+ goals
23%
Pisa 1+ goals
68%
Pisa 2+ goals
31%
Pisa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
66%
Pisa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.04 · 56 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 1.98 + Pisa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pisa attack 1.21 + Lecce defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lecce scores more
50%
level
24%
Pisa scores more
26%

Lecce at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42
M. HjulmandLecceLecce · M
7.9

Match Events

18'
F. Lucioni↳ M. Coda
59'
G. Sibilli← Ahmed Benali
60'
L. Lucca← E. Torregrossa
63'
Marius Marin
65'
Antonino Gallo
71'
A. De Vitis← G. Mastinu
73'
Massimo Coda
74'
P. Faragò← K. Dermaku
74'
A. Tuia← V. Gendrey
74'
A. Calabresi← M. Gargiulo
76'
Alessandro Tuia
78'
Antonio Caracciolo
78'
J. Björkengren← A. Blin
82'
M. Listkowski← Gabriel Strefezza
82'
Y. Cohen← P. Beruatto
83'
G. Masucci← G. Puşcaş
85'
P. Faragò↳ A. Calabresi
90+1'
Maxime Leverbe

Possession

43%Lecce

Shots

21Lecce

Pass accuracy

49%Lecce

Statistics

LeccePisa
Overview
43%Possession57%
21Total Shots9
5Corners2
25Fouls21
Shots
21Total Shots9
6On Target2
7Off Target1
8Blocked6
15Inside Box2
6Outside Box7
Passing
43%Possession57%
310Total Passes422
219Accurate Passes314
71%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
25Fouls21
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Lecce 2 – 0 Pisa

Lecce beat Pisa 2-0 in Serie B on April 25, 2022.

Goals: F. Lucioni (18'), P. Faragò (85').

Pisa controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 21.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce.