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Pisa vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cesena
Cesena
D. Donnarumma 55' (OG)
S. Canestrelli 38'
A. Lind 23'
G. Prestia 76'
10/5/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 8Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Pisa50%
×Draw26%
Cesena25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.54
Cesena
1.01

Pisa creates 52% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 45 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.51
Cesena
1.00

allows per match

Pisa
1.02
Cesena
1.56

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Cesena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
75%
Pisa or Cesena
74%
Draw or Cesena
50%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
25%
Cesena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
79%
Pisa 2+ goals
45%
Pisa 3+ goals
20%
Cesena 1+ goals
64%
Cesena 2+ goals
27%
Cesena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
67%
Cesena (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.51 + Cesena defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cesena attack 1.00 + Pisa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pisa scores more
50%
level
26%
Cesena scores more
25%

Pisa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
A. CiofiCesenaCesena · D
8.2

Match Events

12'
Raffaele Celia
23'
A. Lind↳ A. Arena
38'
S. Canestrelli
46'
D. Donnarumma← R. Celia
50'
Marius Marin
55'
D. DonnarummaOwn goal
58'
T. Berti← G. Calò
59'
E. Tavşan← A. Kargbo
60'
M. Højholt← M. Marin
60'
N. Bonfanti← A. Lind
67'
S. van Hooijdonk← C. Shpendi
73'
A. Calabresi← A. Caracciolo
76'
G. Prestia
77'
S. Hraiech← J. Ceesay
82'
O. Abildgaard← G. Piccinini
82'
S. Angori← S. Moreo
87'
Oliver Abildgaard
90+3'
Nicholas Bonfanti

Possession

37%Pisa

Shots

13Pisa

Pass accuracy

46%Pisa

Statistics

PisaCesena
Overview
37%Possession63%
13Total Shots11
5Corners7
20Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots11
6On Target3
3Off Target7
4Blocked1
11Inside Box6
2Outside Box5
Passing
37%Possession63%
292Total Passes502
211Accurate Passes419
72%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
20Fouls8
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Serie B: Pisa 3–1 Cesena

Pisa beat Cesena 3-1 in Serie B on October 5, 2024.

Goals: A. Lind (23'), S. Canestrelli (38'), D. Donnarumma (55' o.g.), G. Prestia (76').

Cesena controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.