Cesena 1–1 Pisa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pisa

A. La Gumina 79'

I. Touré 33'

2/16/2025

Serie B · Round 26Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Cesena40%

×Draw26%

Pisa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchPisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.23

Cesena

1.38

Pisa

1.23

Cesena creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 115 away

1.39

creates per match

1.21

1.26

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Cesena

1.39

Pisa

1.21

allows per match

Cesena

1.26

Pisa

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesena+0.00on par

Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Pisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

67%

Cesena or Pisa

74%

Draw or Pisa

60%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

19%

Pisa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

75%

Cesena 2+ goals

40%

Cesena 3+ goals

16%

Pisa 1+ goals

71%

Pisa 2+ goals

35%

Pisa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

55%

Pisa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.39 + Pisa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pisa attack 1.21 + Cesena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cesena scores more

40%

level

26%

Pisa scores more

33%

Cesena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

I. Touré

Pisa · M

7.5

Match Events

33'

I. Touré

37'

L. Mendicino← M. Francesconi

39'

Simone Canestrelli

41'

Henrik Wendel Meister

45+4'

Emanuele AdamoGoal cancelled

46'

F. Russo← C. Shpendi

48'

Daniele DonnarummaCard upgrade

49'

52'

53'

57'

58'

L. Sernicola← I. Touré

59'

M. Højholt← H. Meister

67'

O. Moruțan← M. Tramoni

67'

O. Abildgaard← G. Piccinini

70'

S. Bastoni← M. Piacentini

70'

M. Antonucci← D. Šarić

71'

Leonardo Mendicino

73'

Jonathan Klinsmann

79'

A. La Gumina

82'

A. Arena← S. Canestrelli

85'

Flavio Russo

90+2'

Samuele Angori

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaPisa

Overview

50%Possession50%

4Total Shots14

1Corners2

10Fouls16

Shots

4Total Shots14

2On Target2

0Off Target7

2Blocked5

3Inside Box10

1Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

396Total Passes389

302Accurate Passes307

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

6Offsides0

Serie B: Cesena 1–1 Pisa

Cesena and Pisa drew 1-1 in Serie B on February 16, 2025.

Goals: I. Touré (33'), A. La Gumina (79').

Cesena controlled possession (50%) and registered 4 shots to 14.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Pisa — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cesena 1–1 Pisa