Pisa 2–0 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pisa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Benevento

M. Tramoni 78'

S. Moreo 35'

3/18/2023

Serie B · Round 30Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Pisa40%

×Draw27%

Benevento33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PisaExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.14

Pisa

1.29

Benevento

1.14

Pisa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 79 away

1.52

creates per match

1.24

1.03

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Pisa

1.52

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Pisa

1.03

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw

67%

Pisa or Benevento

73%

Draw or Benevento

60%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+

18%

Benevento wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals

72%

Pisa 2+ goals

37%

Pisa 3+ goals

14%

Benevento 1+ goals

68%

Benevento 2+ goals

32%

Benevento 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)

55%

Benevento (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.03 · 115 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.52 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Benevento attack 1.24 + Pisa defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pisa scores more

40%

level

27%

Benevento scores more

33%

Pisa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

A. Calabresi

Pisa · D

7.9

Match Events

35'

37'

43'

45+1'

46'

S. Pettinari← N. Karić

46'

G. Letizia← C. Pastina

49'

P. Beruatto← I. Touré

60'

M. Tramoni← S. Moreo

60'

E. Torregrossa← E. Gliozzi

63'

L. Carfora← Diego Farias

64'

A. La Gumina← S. Nwankwo

71'

Maxime Leverbe

71'

I. Koutsoupias← P. Schiattarella

77'

G. Sibilli← O. Moruțan

78'

M. Tramoni↳ E. Torregrossa

85'

89'

90+2'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PisaBenevento

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots5

1Corners2

19Fouls22

Shots

9Total Shots5

4On Target1

4Off Target2

1Blocked2

7Inside Box3

2Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

324Total Passes390

226Accurate Passes291

70%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls22

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Pisa vs Benevento

Pisa beat Benevento 2-0 in Serie B on March 18, 2023.

Goals: S. Moreo (35'), M. Tramoni (78').

Benevento controlled possession (54%) and registered 5 shots to 9.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.

Pisa vs Benevento — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Pisa vs Benevento