Benevento 1–0 Pisa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pisa

G. Lapadula 85'

5/17/2022

Serie B · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsStadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Benevento47%

×Draw25%

Pisa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchPisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.13

Benevento

1.54

Pisa

1.13

Benevento creates 36% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 116 away

1.72

creates per match

1.20

1.05

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Pisa

1.20

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Pisa

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Pisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

72%

Benevento or Pisa

75%

Draw or Pisa

53%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

24%

Pisa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

79%

Benevento 2+ goals

45%

Benevento 3+ goals

20%

Pisa 1+ goals

68%

Pisa 2+ goals

31%

Pisa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

63%

Pisa (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 78 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Pisa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pisa attack 1.20 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Benevento scores more

47%

level

25%

Pisa scores more

28%

Benevento at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

A. Paleari

Benevento · G

7.9

Match Events

41'

Lorenzo Lucca

54'

F. Berra← A. De Vitis

64'

M. Viviani← G. Acampora

64'

S. Elia← R. Insigne

72'

E. Torregrossa← G. Puşcaş

73'

A. Ioniţă← R. Improta

73'

G. Mastinu← G. Sibilli

77'

Kamil Glik

80'

Ádám Nagy

85'

G. Lapadula

89'

G. Moncini← G. Lapadula

90+1'

Salvatore Elia

90+2'

Ernesto Torregrossa

90'

D. Foulon← E. Masciangelo

90'

N. Siega← I. Touré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoPisa

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots8

3Corners3

17Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots8

3On Target4

8Off Target2

7Blocked2

12Inside Box2

6Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

437Total Passes287

350Accurate Passes203

80%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Benevento vs Pisa

Benevento beat Pisa 1-0 in Serie B on May 17, 2022.

Goals: G. Lapadula (85').

Benevento controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Benevento vs Pisa — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Benevento vs Pisa