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Pirin Razlog vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
FT
3 – 0
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
10/19/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 12Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Pirin Razlog64%
×Draw21%
Perun Kresna15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Razlog
1.97
Perun Kresna
0.84

Pirin Razlog creates 135% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 26 away

creates per match

Pirin Razlog
1.35
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Pirin Razlog
1.11
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw
85%
Pirin Razlog or Perun Kresna
79%
Draw or Perun Kresna
36%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
39%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
86%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
58%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
31%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
57%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
21%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
81%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.97

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more
64%
level
21%
Perun Kresna scores more
15%

Pirin Razlog at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pirin Razlog 3 – 0 Perun Kresna

Pirin Razlog beat Perun Kresna 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Razlog.