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Perun Kresna vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
CANC
00:00
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
5/2/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Perun Kresna30%
×Draw26%
Pirin Razlog44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perun Kresna
1.15
Pirin Razlog
1.45

Pirin Razlog creates 26% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 131 away

creates per match

Perun Kresna
0.73
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

Perun Kresna
1.92
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

Perun Kresna+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perun Kresna ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Perun Kresna or draw
56%
Perun Kresna or Pirin Razlog
74%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
70%

Winning margin

Perun Kresna wins by 2+
12%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Perun Kresna 1+ goals
68%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
32%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
11%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
77%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
42%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
41%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perun Kresna at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perun Kresna attack 0.73 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.15

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Perun Kresna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Perun Kresna scores more
30%
level
26%
Pirin Razlog scores more
44%

Pirin Razlog at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Perun Kresna face Pirin Razlog (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest returns with Perun Kresna hosting Pirin Razlog. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.